As the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20. Imagine if you could travel back to 2010 and buy foreclosed, distressed or underperforming retail strip centers that everyone else was avoiding. It seems obvious now, but when you’re in the midst of a market downturn, it’s challenging to see the potential for future growth.

Let’s examine the historical data. The commercial real estate market, as tracked by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, tells a sobering tale. From 2006 to 2009, we witnessed a 30% decline in prices, bottoming out in Q4 2009.

The subsequent recovery has been remarkable across all sectors, with retail real estate recently emerging as a shining star. At an average 4% vacancy rate, retail spaces are now outperforming the major classes of commercial real estate.

The potential is there for those who look for value in underpriced assets. Smart investors are now focusing on the office space market. We recently sold a 73,000-square-foot office at $57/SF and listed a magnificent 126,000-square-foot property at $78/SF. These deals signal opportunity. Buyers who act now could see major profits in 3-5 years.

How can you see where the future opportunities are? That’s the essence of contrarian investing – the art of identifying potential where others see only risk. In this article, we’ll explore how to develop this skill and position yourself for market shifts.<

What is contrarian investing?

Contrarian investing is an approach that means going against market trends. It’s based on the principle of buying when others are selling and selling when others are buying. Key concepts include:

Recognizing market cycles

All markets go through cycles, and what’s out of favor today may become highly valuable in the future. Consider some of the current market challenges:

These sectors are currently struggling, but could they present opportunities? Examine the underlying factors driving these trends and consider how they might evolve. Are there specific submarkets or property types within these sectors that might recover more quickly or offer unique advantages?

Looking beyond current sentiment

Timing the market is all about reading the room. If you’re at a cocktail party and everyone’s bragging about their real estate deals, flipping contracts, and buying rental properties left and right, that’s probably the time to sell.

On the flip side, if you’re at a party and all you hear is doom and gloom about how real estate is a disaster, that’s when you should be thinking about buying. It’s not always easy, but going against the crowd is often where the real opportunities lie.

Long-term perspective

To be successful in this approach, take a long-term view – commercial real estate is typically a long-term hold, not something for quick flipping.

Strategies to build wealth with contrarian investing

Here are practical approaches you can use to apply a contrarian mindset:

  • Focus on undervalued sectors: Look at segments currently out of favor. This could be office space, retail, or industrial, depending on current market trends.
  • Analyze supply and demand dynamics: Look for areas where supply is decreasing or demand is potentially increasing, even if it’s not immediately apparent.
  • Consider population and business growth: Look at markets with strong population growth and increasing business presence.
  • Invest in strategic locations: Seek properties in areas with good transit access, walkability, or near mixed-use developments.
  • Look for value-add opportunities: Consider properties where you can add value, whether through renovation, better management, or solving occupancy issues.
  • Explore resilient property types: Within the office sector, medical office, and government-leased properties often maintain steady demand and occupancy rates even during market downturns.

Risk management with contrarian investing

Investing in this way and going against the crowd requires strong risk management practices like:

Diversification

One of the best ways to reduce investment risk is through diversification. You can achieve this in various ways, including geographic diversity across different markets. By spreading your investments across areas with different economic outlooks, you can reduce the impact of economic cycles affecting specific areas of the country.

Diversify across property types and risk levels. Federal or local government-leased properties offer stable income in uncertain markets. Balance these with higher-risk opportunities like value-add or distressed assets. This mix provides stability so that you can capitalize on contrarian opportunities.

Due diligence and market understanding

Build a team of brokers and lawyers to help with due diligence and market analysis. Brokers have access to specialized data to uncover hidden opportunities. As an example, our company invests about $750,000 annually in market tracking systems and data. This helps us spot deals others miss and make smart choices, even when they go against popular opinion. Your legal team can assist with lease and contract review to confirm details and mitigate risks.

Long-term perspective

Real estate rewards a long-term approach. It’s more about buying and holding than quick flips. This patience can pay off when market cycles shift. Consider the investors who bought commercial properties during the great recession. Their willingness to hold on through market fluctuations proved well worth it.

Consider alternative uses

You can also reduce your risk by assessing alternative uses for a property. A current strategy involves transforming existing commercial buildings into residential apartments. Of the 151,000 units in various states of development, office conversions make up 40% of this pipeline, while hotel transformations account for 22.5%. Alternative uses give investors options to reduce risks if market dynamics change.

Future of contrarian investing

Some of the trends that can support contrarian investing include:

Opportunities in office space

The current downturn in the office market presents strong opportunities for contrarian investors. While many focus elsewhere, contrarian investors see potential for solid returns in this sector. In a few years, investors who recognized this opportunity early may find themselves well-positioned, potentially making office space one of the strongest investment areas of this decade.

Potential for government incentives

The federal government currently offers several programs to encourage adaptive reuse of existing commercial real estate spaces. These include HUD’s Community Development Block Grant Program (CDBG) and two programs under the Department of Transportation that provide financing at below-market rates for housing development near transportation.

We could see increased incentives from state and local governments looking at ways to subsidize adaptive reuse projects and reduce zoning restrictions to increase the housing supply in urban areas. These initiatives could make office-to-residential conversions more feasible and provide opportunities for investors to repurpose underutilized office buildings.

Changing supply dynamics

Office supply is likely to tighten in the coming years. New construction will focus on ultra-high-end Class A spaces with extensive amenities. Meanwhile, existing buildings will have different fates. Some will be demolished for alternative uses, and others will see conversions to residential, self-storage, or data centers. This restricted supply creates strong investment opportunities as demand heats up.

Evolving demand patterns

Large employers’ return-to-office policies often make headlines, but they represent only a portion of the office space market. Small businesses account for 46.4% of private sector employment and drive demand for buildings with smaller suites of 1200 to 2500 square feet. We see these properties consistently maintain strong occupancy rates.

Economic changes affect office demand. Recent job reports show that unemployment rose from 3.5% to 4.3% between July 2023 and July 2024. As the labor market becomes less competitive, companies may feel more comfortable requiring employees to return to the office. This could increase demand for office space.

Key takeaways

As you consider the potential of contrarian investing in real estate, ask yourself: What overlooked opportunities in today’s market might become tomorrow’s success stories?

Ready to think like a contrarian investor? Here’s where to begin:

  • Identify undervalued assets by going against current market trends. Recognize market cycle opportunities and look beyond popular opinions.
  • Dive deep to understand the market. Diversify across locations and property types to manage uncertainty and spot potential deals others might overlook.
  • Consider the impact of supply in markets with job and population growth in the office space sector. A patient approach and openness to alternative property uses may produce strong opportunities.